This weekend we have the biggest contest we have ever observed for DraftKings MMA. We’ve got a $10 entry competition with $300,000 in total prizes, and $100,000 of that to 1st place. I never believed we’d observe a 6-figure 1st place prize for MMA but that I was incorrect and that I can not wait to pursue it. Conor McGregor vs Khabib Nurmagomedov is going to be the biggest fight in UFC history and DraftKings just made it even bigger for us DFS players. We are down to 12-fights therefore we could see a range of ties for that 1st place prize, therefore try to be different with your lineups someplace, or leave salary on the dining table to differ in that manner. With that said, here are a few plays I enjoy this weekend along with my fade of the week:
Money Game play of this week — Vicente Luque ($9,400)
Luque is the”safest” drama on the card by a fantastic margin in his -900 gaming lineup. I love plugging in these high odds guys in cash so I can lock a win in there and worry about locating 3 other wins from my 5 additional areas. We generally only want 4 wins in money games to beat the cash line, so that’s what I take for in these 50/50 or twice up games. Luque has been quite impressive in his UFC run and he’s overcome some fairly big names. On paper, this is only one of his simplest matches nonetheless. He also has large time upside with his completing potential. He has an ITD lineup of -270, therefore I think we could have 100+ points within this triumph. He’s a fantastic play in all formats, but he is going to be chalky in championships, so that is why he is my cash play of the week instead.
GPP play of the week — Alexander Volkov ($8,700)
Heavyweights are always good to aim in GPPs because it just takes 1 shot with a lot of those men. I think that this is a great matchup for Volkov and he is priced at $8.7k this week. If he can find a 1st round KO at the price, he’ll likely be on the winning LU. Same is true for Lewis, so he is a good GPP play as well. But, my choice to win is going to be Volkov and I like his cost. I believe a few guys priced above him this week will be a lot more possessed, so we could get a heavyweight favorite at lower possession . Fight Does Not Go To Conclusion is currently lined at -190, so this is a good GPP struggle to target over all. If you enjoy the Black Beast to get the W, then he’s a fantastic fighter to throw on your GPP LUs.
Underdog play of the week — Tony Martin ($7,400)
Here really is the best odds worth on the card. Presently, Laflare is lined at -135 and Tony Martin is lined at +115. However, on DraftKings Laflare is priced $1,400 higher than Martin. I enjoy searching online value like that which alone puts Martin in drama in most formats. Martin also has the better odds to finish this fight ITD, so that’s another plus with him. I like the flooring for Martin in cash games as well since Laflare is not likely to finish if he wins. So, at $7.4k, we can afford a loss from Martin and just take the things he can rack up in 15-minutes.
Fade of the week — Sergio Pettis ($8,600)
Sergio Pettis could get the win here. However, he’s going to need to get a finish to repay his $8.6k price . Sergio will not be going for almost any takedowns in this fight, and he does not strike a high enough speed for him to get 10x of the $8.6k. Sergio are the better fighter around the feet, but if he doesn’t get a finish he then probably only scores 60-70 points at a win. Those low scores don’t cut it in $8.6k. There are just better plays points each dollar and people are the men I’ll be targeting. Sergio is a strong fade if you are making 20 or less lineups this weekend.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, then you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
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