This weekend, we have a 12-fight card with 2 name fights in Toronto, Canada. We are back to having PPV sized competitions on DraftKings this week and there are a few solid GPPs to pursue this week. The most important GPP is a $10 entrance using $25,000 to 1st place. Those are always my favourite contests to pursue so I’ll be shooting some shots at that. Other than that, I’ll stick to my 3-entry max & single entry GPPs. I will also be picking up H2Hs through the week and that I will find a good amount of play in games. With that said, here are a Couple of plays I like this week as well as my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Joanna Jedrzejczyk ($6,800)
JJ might be the easiest money game punt of all time at $6.8k. The lineup for Fight Goes To Conclusion is currently -195 and if we are getting 5-rounds out of JJ with the striking volume she puts out then we’ve got a good flooring there also and it doesn’t matter whether she loses or wins. At that price tag she lets you cover up for some heavy favorites and when we could get 4 other areas to win using a ~40-point reduction from JJ in our lineup then we will be sitting quite pretty in our money games this weekend.
GPP play of the week — Thiago Santos ($8,800)
Fight Doesn’t Go To Decision is presently lined at -495 with this battle. The most probable outcome is that someone in this fight gets knocked out within 15-minutes. With that knockout likely comes in least one 10-point knock down. If that may be in the 1st round, then you are currently at 100-points even if it’s merely the 1st punch/kick of the night. At $8.8k that is more than enough to give you a chance at 1st place at a GPP. Thiago is your favorite in this struggle and Manuwa is 38-years old today, so he can not have much time at the game left. I think we role with the favored here and throw him into our GPP lineups and then wait for the fireworks.
Underdog play of the week — Matthew Lopez ($7,300)
Matthew Lopez is my underdog of this week because of his wrestling/grappling potential. In addition, I think he is a underdog here. Lopez lost his last 2 fights by knockout, so that’s really what I would worry about most with him Brad Katona is probably the better striker of the two but he has never knocked anybody out, so I believe we’ve got a solid flooring here at $7.3k even if this struggle does stay standing because I do not watch Katona knocking Lopez out. I think Lopez is most likely the better wrestler of both though and I think he lands several takedowns in this fight and may win a choice with a wrestling-heavy game plan. Lopez lands 3.13 takedowns each 15-minutes at a 57% accuracy, and if he is getting pieced up on the toes I am sure he will be going for even more than that here. At $7.3k I believe Lopez makes for a solid play in most formats and that I think he has a split decision win here as the road underdog.
Fade of this week — Katlyn Chookagian ($8,700)
I’m fading a couple of fighters this week , but the individual I never even considered using was Katlyn Chookagian. It’s not that I do not believe she could win, since she for certain could, and I think she does. However, I don’t see her paying off an $8.7k DK salary with a triumph. I believe we would require a complete from her in this fight to get 10x that wages and I believe that is very unlikely to happen. Or, she will want FightMetric to count all her screams as significant strikes. The maximum Chookagian has ever scored in a UFC fight so far in her profession is 83 DK points which was against Irene Aldana who places a much higher pace than Jessica Eye does. Even though she could get 83-points here then that still would not be sufficient here to place her at the winning lineup in her 8.7k price tag. I think if you’re making 20 or less lineups that Saturday you can safely fade Chookagian and when she gets a triumph it should not hurt much.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and also provide my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick forecasts, you’ll find that for just $7.99 on this link below:
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